At least 50% of the country is still reeling from Donald Trump winning the White House. And that’s just the people who didn’t want to see him there. There are millions of Trump supporters still in shock that he actually pulled it off.
Looking back, all the signs were there. Trump was in better shape than most political professionals or even many Trump backers gave him credit for. I would love to tell you I saw it coming. And up until the last few days, I didn’t.
As a political professional, I make my living advising campaigns on how to win — especially in difficult environments. I am happy to say Election 2016 went fine for my clients. But where I let people down was not anticipating the Trump wave. If I had understood what was coming, my clients and friends would have done even better.
I saw some of the signs, but didn’t see the big picture. And so begins the soul-searching. I don’t want any surprises in the future. I want to learn from 2016 so I can continue to give clients and friends the best advice possible. It’s easy to make excuses, but that’s not how you win.
Here are 4 lessons I learned from Election 2016:
- Reject Groupthink. Many Democrats, liberals and progressives were lulled to sleep thinking there was no way Trump could win. He wasn’t really a Republican or a conservative. He was just … repellent. And beyond that, liberals placed outsized faith in the the emerging Democratic majority. Waiting for future demographic trends to save your rear won’t help if the election is next Tuesday. If your Spidey senses start tingling in mid-October, you should pay attention.
- The Angrist Side Usually Wins. Conservatives, Independents and many Democrats were pissed. Big time. They were so pissed they threw in with a candidate who rejects most of their principals. Toss logic, facts and data aside. Politics and campaigns are rarely about positive emotions and they are even more rarely about logic. White working-class voters were furious. And rage is a hell of a motivator to go to the polls. One of the key lessons I learned last year is rage matters. And Democrats shouldn’t be afraid or shy about stoking the anger of voters. I have always said the biggest source of energy in politics is resentment. And that is something Donald Trump understands at the cellular level.
- Field Matters. In his classic tome, All Politics is Local, legendary former House Speaker Tip O’Neill gives us a lasting lesson. After losing his first race for office, O’Neill runs into an elderly neighbor. They chat and the neighbor reveals she hadn’t voted for Tip. This rocks O’Neill back on his heels. How could this woman who has known me my whole life not vote for me? Well, the woman says, “You never asked.” Never forget you have to ask for every vote. Even if you think the votes in the bag. People like to be asked. And those votes add up. There have been too many anecdotal stories of the Hillary Clinton campaign missing easy votes. And there are even more stories about their failure to persuade voters on the fence. You have to go get those votes. And not just electronically. Shoe leather matters. Neighbors talking to neighbors matter. And that leads us to my next point.
- Data Matters. Interpretation Matters More. Democrats have held a digital lead over Republicans for over a decade. Until 2016 when the GOP was able to even the field. It’s clear the problem isn’t in the amount or quality of the data. For Democrats, it’s a question of interpretation of the data. A solution that may help is for every large campaign to hire one person who’s job is to challenge assumptions — especially on how the campaign deploys resources based on data. Campaigns need to have in-house skeptics ready to challenge base assumptions. The Israeli Defense Force employs this practice, known as the Red Team Doctrine, to combat the influence of groupthink.
The Trump phenomenon is something to learn from. Strong campaigns will learn the important lessons. Losers will continue with the status quo. By no means are my four lessons comprehensive, but it’s a good start.
So here’s my question: What other lessons can we learn from the 2016 election? You can leave a comment by clicking here.